2026 Hurricane Season Forecast Impacted by El Niño

A developing El Niño will be one of the greatest forces shaping the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, according to AccuWeather. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, which can limit storm development. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. AccuWeather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher. Forecasters also predict three to five direct impacts on the United States during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Historically, the Atlantic hurricane season averages 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The 2025 hurricane season was close to the historical average in terms of the number of storms. It featured three Category 5 hurricanes, just one shy of the all-time record of four. Furthermore, most of the tropical activity occurred after Sept. 10, the climatological peak of the hurricane season.

Although AccuWeather is predicting a near- to below-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes this year, 2026 could still be more active than other El Niño years. Additionally, very warm Atlantic water could still allow storms to intensify quickly, including before the season officially begins on June 1. AccuWeather said the U.S. regions at greatest risk of direct impacts from a tropical storm or hurricane in 2026 are the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas.

Since the start of the satellite era in the 1960s, El Niño years have averaged about 10 named storms and five hurricanes. By contrast, La Niña years typically produce around 15 named storms and eight hurricanes. When neither El Niño nor La Niña is present, the average falls between those two extremes at 13 named storms and seven hurricanes.